Forecasts: US jobs report (NFP) - Friday, November 6. Here's how BTC, gold, SP500 etc. may react.



• Monthly US jobs report usually due first Friday of every month; can move trillions of $ across global assets

• US October nonfarm payrolls (NFP) due @ 1:30PM UTC Friday, November 6th

• Economists predict 65k new jobs added in Oct, a potential turnaround from the 29k shocker in Sept

• US unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.2% last month

• Scroll to bottom to see Bloomberg model forecasts for post-NFP reactions for 14 major assets, including BTC, Gold, SP500, EURUSD, and more.

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The next installment of the US jobs report is due tomorrow - Friday, November 6th.



The monthly nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data out of the world's biggest economy can move trillions of dollars across global financial markets!



Why is the US jobs report so important?



1) US consumers drive US economic growth

The US is the biggest economy in the world, and its biggest growth engine = US consumers (people spending money on goods and services).

Hence, more people with more jobs = more income to spend and support US economic growth.



2) US jobs report influences Fed rate decisions

The Federal Reserve, a.k.a. the Fed, is the world's most influential central bank and has a dual mandate (economic goals to achieve):

• "Maximum employment" (jobs growth)

• "Stable prices" (inflation)

Typically, the Fed either:

• lowers its benchmark interest rates to boost jobs growth and support inflation, OR

• raises its benchmark interest rates to dampen jobs growth so it subdues inflation

A hot US jobs market (a lot of hiring) may also lead to inflation staying elevated.

i.e. more people with jobs --> more money that can be spent in an economy --> businesses have more ability to raise their selling prices --> inflation



Will the Fed hike US interest rates again this year?



Recall that the Fed already hiked rates back on September 16th by 25 basis points (25bps) - its first rate hike since 2023.

Then in October, it paused and kept its benchmark rates unchanged at 3.75% - 4.00%.

At the time of writing, markets now predict about a near-80% chance that the Fed will hike again in December 2026.

Looking further out, markets also expect about a 30% chance that the Fed will hike 2 more times in 2027.



Why do such shifting expectations matter for markets?

• The thought of US interest rates going up tends to boost the US dollar, while weighing down gold, stocks, and crypto.

• Conversely, the thought of US interest rates not moving up as fast may soften the US dollar, while boosting (or at least support) gold, stocks, and crypto.



NFP forecasts by economists



Here's what economists forecast for this top-tier economic data release on Nov 6th:

• Headline NFP number: 65,000 new jobs added in October

If so, 65k new jobs added would be a notable turnaround from September's shocker of just 29k new jobs added - much lower than the 90k forecasted figure.

Although also drastically lower than August's blockbuster 162k headline number, 65k new jobs added in October would still mark some hiring resilience in the world's biggest economy.



• Unemployment rate: 4.2%

If so, 4.2% would match September's jobless rate, though ticking slightly higher than the 4.1% in August.



Potential market scenarios



• Another blockbuster US jobs report that paves the way for Fed rate hikes in Dec 2026 through 2027 could drag down risk assets such as US stock indices and cryptos, while boosting the US dollar.



• If the US jobs market remains resilient, or at least not suffering an unexpected deterioration, it may bolster major risk assets like US stock indices (SP500, NAS100, DJ30) and cryptos, while keeping the US dollar in demand.



• An unexpected rapid deterioration in US hiring that dilutes bets for Fed rate hikes in December and beyond could translate into a weaker dollar, likely boosting US dollar-denominated assets e.g. precious metals like Gold (XAUUSD+) and Silver (XAGUSD), along with G10 FX pairs such as EURUSD+, GBPUSD+ etc.).



Ask Bybit AI: How would the US jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) on Friday, November 6th impact gold, EURUSD, S&P 500, and Bitcoin prices?





Forecasts: How might major assets react to this NFP data?



These % forecasts are for the 6 hours after the NFP release @ 1:30 PM UTC Fri, Nov 6th:

• Bitcoin (BTC): as much as 0.8% up / 3% down

• Ethereum (ETH): as much as 0.8% up / 4% down

• Ripple (XRP): as much as 0.8% up / 3.5% down

• Solana (SOL): as much as 0.8% up / 3.7% down

• Gold (XAUUSDT): as much as 1.1% up / 1.4% down

• Silver (XAGUSDT): as much as 2% up / 3% down

• Brent Oil (BZUSDT): as much as 2% up / 0.7% down

• WTI Crude Oil (CLUSDT): as much as 1.6% up / 1.1% down

• Euro vs. US Dollar (EURUSD): as much as 0.3% up / 0.4% down

• British Pound vs. US Dollar (GBPUSD): as much as 0.3% up / 0.4% down

• US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen (USDJPY): as much as 0.2% up / 0.34% down

• S&P 500 (SP500): as much as 0.4% up / 1.3% down

• Nasdaq 100 (NAS100): as much as 1% up / 1.6% down

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ30): as much as 0.4% up / 0.9% down



READ MORE (published Mon, Nov 2): 3 Assets to Watch (Nov 2-6) - Apple, GBPUSD+, and SP500





DISCLAIMER:

This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.