3 Alasan Harga Minyak Mendorong Pasar Bitcoin, Saham & Forex Hari Ini (Setiap Trader Wajib Tahu)



Harga minyak melonjak lagi!



Pada saat penulisan:

• Minyak Mentah WTI (USOUSD): +1.3% - membuat upaya lain untuk tingkat psikologis $100/bbl sebelum melonggarkan lebih rendah.



Trade USOUSD Button





• Minyak Mentah Brent (UKOUSD): +1.3% - secara singkat menembus $106.60/bbl untuk mencapai level tertinggi 2 minggu (tertinggi sejak 7 April)



Trade Brent Crude Oil Button





Lonjakan minyak terbaru ini menciptakan efek riak di seluruh pasar global hari ini:

• SP500 dan NAS100: -0.5%

• DJ30: -0.6%

• Bitcoin: -0.4% namun bertahan di atas $78k

• Ethereum: -2%

• Nikkei225: -0.75%, tetapi setelah mencapai rekor tertinggi baru (menggunakan harga intraday) - memenuhi skenario sisi atas kami yang diterbitkan pada Senin, 20 April



Pelakunya?

Pembicaraan damai yang terhenti antara AS dan Iran, dengan kedua belah pihak terkunci dalam kebuntuan tegang atas Selat Hormuz.





3 Alasan Mengapa Harga Minyak Merupakan Penggerak Pasar Utama Saat Ini



1) Blokade Selat Hormuz Mengancam Pasokan Global

AS dan Iran tetap terkunci dalam kebuntuan atas Selat Hormuz - saluran air kritis yang menangani 20% dari pasokan minyak global.

Dengan tidak adanya pembicaraan damai AS-Iran di depan mata, meskipun Presiden Donald Trump memperpanjang gencatan senjata tanpa batas waktu, lalu lintas kapal tanker yang melalui selat mungkin memiliki sedikit kesempatan untuk kembali normal dalam waktu dekat.



2) Ketakutan Inflasi Kembali Dengan Sepenuh Tenaga

Minyak di atas $100 per barel menaikkan biaya di seluruh transportasi, manufaktur, dan barang konsumsi, memaksa mata uang Asia seperti Rupiah Indonesia (USDIDR+) dan Rupee India (USDINR+) mencapai rekor terendah baru terhadap dolar AS.

Bank sentral yang merencanakan pemotongan suku bunga sekarang menghadapi tekanan inflasi yang baru, menjaga kebijakan moneter tetap ketat (suku bunga tetap tinggi, mungkin lebih tinggi lagi).



3) Aset Risiko Tidak Bisa Menangani Syok Energi

Besides currencies, interest rate levels across major economies force investors to rethink how much they value other assets, including gold, stocks, even cryptos:

• Higher interest rates = less appeal for gold, stocks, cryptos.

• Lower interest rates = greater appeal for gold, stocks, cryptos.

Hence no surprise that today (Thursday, April 23), stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin are all falling as higher oil prices threaten economic growth and corporate margins.



Ask TradeGPT: Why would rising oil prices during Iran war pull down risk assets like stocks and crypto?



Oil's inverse correlation with stocks, cryptos.



Using Bloomberg's correlation finder, Brent oil has demonstrated an inverse relationship with risk assets, and even with precious metals.

An inverse relationship with oil means that, when oil goes up, these other assets go down, and vice versa.

Over any 5-day rolling period over the past 3 months, oil has shown an inverse correlation of:

• -0.87 with the DJ30

• -0.76 with Silver (XAGUSD)

• -0.72 with SP500

• -0.71 with Dogecoin

• -0.67 with Ethereum

• -0.63 with Cardano

• -0.61 with NAS100

• 0.60 with Bitcoin

• -0.59 with Litecoin

• -0.55 with Gold (XAUUSD+)

NOTE: A correlation of 0.5 or greater shows a strong relationship. A negative correlation shows an inverse relationship (moves in opposite directions).



Today's price action, along with the correlations over the past 3 months, proves that ...

Oil is the market's puppet master right now.





Oil: Potential Scenarios



• SISI ATAS: If US-Iran peace talks remain stalled and the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues, WTI Crude oil and Brent Crude oil could easily breach $100/barrel and $110/bbl again respectively.



• DOWNSIDE: Any breakthrough in negotiations or signs of de-escalation could trigger a sharp reversal. Trump has shown he can move oil prices with a single social media post. A surprise peace deal could send WTI and Brent back below their respective 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) quickly.



Watch the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran diplomatic developments closely - they're driving everything from currency markets to crypto.

For traders, volatility equals opportunity, but risk management is critical in this fluid and highly uncertain environment.